Haaland is the only captain: 7.6 expected points at home to Ipswich

Captaincy

Haaland is the captain and it is not close. The model gives him 7.6 expected points this gameweek at home to Ipswich Town, 1.6 clear of the next name on the list.

Saka sits second on 6.0 expected points this gameweek, and the case for him is the longer view: he is a top 10 midfielder over the next five weeks. Bruno Fernandes (5.6), Cherki (5.5) and Groß (5.4) complete the shortlist, with Cherki sharing Haaland's Ipswich fixture.

Where the crowd and the model disagree

Saka is owned by 17% and the model has him on 28.7 expected points over the next five gameweeks, the highest figure on the watchlist. Gabriel (25.2, owned by 21%) and Mbeumo (24.6, owned by 20%) follow him.

Cunha is the pick of the differentials. He is owned by 6.7% yet the model has him on 22.3 expected points over the next five gameweeks, a top 10 midfielder over that spell. Stach of Leeds is owned by 2.3% with 21.9, though his run starts with a tough fixture at home to Man Utd.

Popular but overpriced

Szoboszlai is the clearest trap. He is owned by 23% at £6.9m, is not certain to start, and the model puts him on 9.5 expected points over the next five gameweeks; Groß at £6.0m is expected to score 13.3 more over the same span.

Gvardiol is the most owned player on this list at 28.8%, and the model is firm about the cheaper option at Manchester City.

Wissa (17.2 expected points over the next five gameweeks, owned by 16% at £6.3m) trails Barry, who costs £5.7m and is expected to score 4.5 more. Virgil van Dijk is in the same position against Calafiori, a gap of 4.2 expected points over the next five gameweeks for £0.6m less. Palmer is still expected to score 23.3 over the next five gameweeks, but Cherki is £1.8m cheaper and 3.4 ahead.

Best value

Thomas of Coventry leads the value list at 4.88 expected points per £m over the next five gameweeks. At £4.0m he is a top 10 defender over the next five weeks, with 20 expected points over that period.

Gomez of Brighton (4.2 expected points per £m over the next five gameweeks, £5.0m) opens at home to Crystal Palace. Justin (4.16) and Janelt (4.08) also make the list, but both face tough fixtures this weekend, home to Man Utd and Liverpool respectively. Silva of Bournemouth (3.96) is a top 10 defender over the next five weeks at £5.0m.

Fixtures

Manchester City host Ipswich Town, which is why Haaland, Cherki and Anderson (21.3 expected points over the next five gameweeks, owned by 3.9%) all appear across the lists. Brighton at home to Crystal Palace supports both Groß and Gomez.

The tough fixtures are concentrated at Leeds (home to Man Utd), Brentford (home to Liverpool), Nottingham Forest (home to Arsenal) and Everton (home to Chelsea). Gibbs-White and Barry still carry 23.0 and 21.7 expected points over the next five gameweeks, so the five-week view is kinder to them than this single weekend.